It's August 16, 2011 and one of my favorite economic indicators is being released today. The figure is called capacity utilization and is the percentage of industry that is being utilized vs. sitting idle waiting on workers, capital, orders, repair, etc. If you ask me, it is a great indicator of where the economy is truly headed. It is also one of the more esoteric indicators, so I have to look for it. I also have an uncanny nose for bullshit. Let me explain.
I was thankfully forced to read a book called 1984 by George Orwell in high school in 1983. This was an era before cell phones, personal computers, GPS or any of the other niceties that we enjoy/tolerate today. I thought it impossible that there would be an illuminated box that would sit on a table and spy on my every move, reporting to the central government nicknamed "Big Brother." The news agencies were all state run (in the book) and the people saw the news that the government wanted them to see, which usualy had something to do with the geo-political sentiments for that time. At least that is the way it was in the book, right? Team that up with my service in the US Atlantic Submarine Fleet in the late 80's and I have an almost immediate distrust for what people call "the news."
When I was a broker (by NASD license alone), I read the Investor's Business Daily and watched CNBC for economic news. These were two places that the news was almost all eceonomic. In many cases, if you didn't have a background in economics (or at least know a little something about it), the news from these sources would not make any sense to you.
I now rely on CNBC.com and in all fairness to one of my favorite channels, I haven't had the luxury of watching CNBC in a few years now. I would hope that their televised reporting has less to do with politics and more to do with economics.
As I am looking for my favorite indicator, here is what I see on the CNBC.com homepage and why it stands out to me:
"US Housing Starts Fall Less Than Expected in July"- In a perfect world, this is not-so-good economic news. Here they are trying to make it sound completely peachy. The news is not-so-good.
"Is Texas Job Boom Gov. Perry's Doing- Or Just Luck"- As a trader, broker, investor or someone else involved int he economic machinery of today, why do I care about this obvious political jab from a formerly conservative news source?
"Stocks Fall Amid Global Economic Fears"- What about domestic economic fears? We have high unemployment, no growth and stifling government intervention in small business. By the way, less than 1.4% growth in GDP for two straight quarters is, for all practical purposes, no growth. Also, it is an economic fact, not an opinion, that small business creates the jobs, not government. We don't have any fears here? Try again!
Today, I had to sift through some BS and eventually go to another site to get the number I wanted. The answer is 77.5%, up from 76.7%. This is better economic news, all things considered. It does indicate that a surge in industrial production took place in July. It is better news, but not the indication that we are heading for an optimal 3.5% growth in GDP anytime soon.
Watch the "news" with care. There's a LOT of bullshit out there.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Monday, August 8, 2011
A Slight Edge Moment
The first time I ever heard of The Slight Edge Theory, it was during my first listening of The Psychology of Selling by Brian Tracy about 11 years ago. As an example, it states that the winning racehorse wins approximately 10-100 times more money than an average racehorse, but wins the races sometimes only by a few inches. In The Psychology of Selling, Brian goes one step further and states that the same thing about us as businesspeople, that the salesperson that gets the sale and the salesperson that does not get the sale differ only by about 1%-4%, but the difference in commissions (or revenues) is enormous at the end of the year. I have also heard The Slight Edge Theory mentioned by the late Jim Rohn, as well as the fantastic book "The Slight Edge" by Jeff Olson.
This morning I had a brush with The Slight Edge. I accidentally woke up a little bit earlier. The clock on my coffee maker accidentally got set an hour ahead so coffee was ready when I accidentally got up. While I was rebooting my computer and preparing it for the rigors I put it through everyday, I checked my email on my Blackberry and noticed that the usual stack of emails I have to sift through in the morning weren't there yet. Part of my morning ritual is to retweet Seth Godin's blog (when I feel it is applicable). This morning it was the first tweet for me to review, saving me from what is sometimes a time consuming process.
It's not something that I've never noticed before. It's not like I've never heard the expression "the early bird gets the worm." It's just neat to sometimes experience a universal truth all over again...a kind of reaffirming sense of discovering something new, but something I've always known. Let's see what else I can re-discover today!
This morning I had a brush with The Slight Edge. I accidentally woke up a little bit earlier. The clock on my coffee maker accidentally got set an hour ahead so coffee was ready when I accidentally got up. While I was rebooting my computer and preparing it for the rigors I put it through everyday, I checked my email on my Blackberry and noticed that the usual stack of emails I have to sift through in the morning weren't there yet. Part of my morning ritual is to retweet Seth Godin's blog (when I feel it is applicable). This morning it was the first tweet for me to review, saving me from what is sometimes a time consuming process.
It's not something that I've never noticed before. It's not like I've never heard the expression "the early bird gets the worm." It's just neat to sometimes experience a universal truth all over again...a kind of reaffirming sense of discovering something new, but something I've always known. Let's see what else I can re-discover today!
Friday, August 5, 2011
Focus on What I CAN Control
Ok, I admit it. I have gotten distracted. I have allowed the pundits on TV and the ________'s in Washington seduce me into getting involved in politics instead of focusing on business and what's REALLY important in my life...maybe not REALLY important, but what I can REALLY directly control.
Right now, I see that there is a battle taking place between government and business in which government is limiting business and the prosperity of this country, if not financially bankrupting my country. I had never noticed this before, but I also have read Atlas Shrugged now, at least to the point that the warning in the book and the drama on the TV became the same (in my eyes). I don't see "liberals" or "progressives," I see "socialists" and "communists." When I hear "tax the top 1%," or "the wealthy must pay their 'fair share,'" I hear "wealth redistribution" a la "The Communist Manifesto." I also see this as morally incorrect and an infringement on the freedom to succeed in business and in life, even though I am currently far from being in the top 1%.
When I first discovered Klout.com, I was influential about entrepreneurship, a subject that is near and dear to my heart. After a couple of political tweets, I find out that I'm influential about "prison" (Klout.com is based in Nancy Pelosi's district, lol). I've never been to prison however a few people with my name have, as I discover after "Googling" myself. After getting involved with the current political debate (and recently there have been many), I found myself taking a breather from my business life and getting angry about things I cannot directly control.
Here's the deal from my perspective. I give something power by the amount of thought and attention I give to it. If I give a government that has a history of spending beyond it's means more attention than it deserves, I give it power and I take away power from what I can do to contribute to the business world and the world of entrepreneurship. Where the two cross in my world is my love for the foriegn exchange markets and the government policies that are in the background. I need to remember that I cannot directly change government policy as I also cannot directly control how the FOREX market trades.
I CAN control my attitude and keep it a winning attitude. I CAN control how I invest my money and making it increase in value. I CAN control my business education and make sure I'm learning something new everyday about business. I CAN control my FOCUS and stay focused on what's REALLY important.
By staying focused on entrepreneurship and business, I make the best contribution to the world I can make...one more happier, wealthier and more-educated individual.
Right now, I see that there is a battle taking place between government and business in which government is limiting business and the prosperity of this country, if not financially bankrupting my country. I had never noticed this before, but I also have read Atlas Shrugged now, at least to the point that the warning in the book and the drama on the TV became the same (in my eyes). I don't see "liberals" or "progressives," I see "socialists" and "communists." When I hear "tax the top 1%," or "the wealthy must pay their 'fair share,'" I hear "wealth redistribution" a la "The Communist Manifesto." I also see this as morally incorrect and an infringement on the freedom to succeed in business and in life, even though I am currently far from being in the top 1%.
When I first discovered Klout.com, I was influential about entrepreneurship, a subject that is near and dear to my heart. After a couple of political tweets, I find out that I'm influential about "prison" (Klout.com is based in Nancy Pelosi's district, lol). I've never been to prison however a few people with my name have, as I discover after "Googling" myself. After getting involved with the current political debate (and recently there have been many), I found myself taking a breather from my business life and getting angry about things I cannot directly control.
Here's the deal from my perspective. I give something power by the amount of thought and attention I give to it. If I give a government that has a history of spending beyond it's means more attention than it deserves, I give it power and I take away power from what I can do to contribute to the business world and the world of entrepreneurship. Where the two cross in my world is my love for the foriegn exchange markets and the government policies that are in the background. I need to remember that I cannot directly change government policy as I also cannot directly control how the FOREX market trades.
I CAN control my attitude and keep it a winning attitude. I CAN control how I invest my money and making it increase in value. I CAN control my business education and make sure I'm learning something new everyday about business. I CAN control my FOCUS and stay focused on what's REALLY important.
By staying focused on entrepreneurship and business, I make the best contribution to the world I can make...one more happier, wealthier and more-educated individual.
Monday, August 1, 2011
Why I'm Doing Better Than I Was Three Years Ago
This is a note to all the politicians and the people that think that government will help you out.
First, the question that is a campaign tool for many politicians is "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" I am a fiscally conservative single heterosexual man who is doing better than he was four years ago. I even had to spend a weekend or two at a local homeless shelter here in downtown Atlanta as early as August 2007 and April 2008. So now, it's July 2011. How did I accomplish this miracle of improving my life in the midst of a financial crisis that is actually still going on?
The government didn't have a thing to do with it. I didn't get a stimulus check and I had business losses that gave my Federal tax benefits. I did not and do not see how the government did anything towards my personal progress except giving me the freedom to do it.
Perhaps, one of my best friends said it best: "You pulled yourself up by your bootstraps and pulled your head out of your ass."
1) I stopped drinking alcohol
2) I stopped smoking cigarettes
3) I took responsibillity for the results of my life
4) I invested in my mind and my continuing education
5) I read positive things, listened to positive things and started exercising
6) I started using Quicken software to better control my expenditures
7) I stopped wasting money on pipe dreams and "businesses" that I didn't have time to execute on.
Philosophically speaking, I came across "The Art of Exceptional Living" by Jim Rohn and "The Psychology of Winning" by Denis Waitley. I listened to them. I took notes. I red Atlas Shrugged because Jim challenged me to. I started pushing the limits of who I was into a new definition of Who I can be. I quit investing in a business that was doomed from the get-go and investing into more productive areas. I started paying off my debts and investing in me.
The bottom line is that I started accepting responsibility for my life. It's the only way to create change in your life.
My challenge to you is "Are you taking more responsibility for yourself than you wre four years ago?"
First, the question that is a campaign tool for many politicians is "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" I am a fiscally conservative single heterosexual man who is doing better than he was four years ago. I even had to spend a weekend or two at a local homeless shelter here in downtown Atlanta as early as August 2007 and April 2008. So now, it's July 2011. How did I accomplish this miracle of improving my life in the midst of a financial crisis that is actually still going on?
The government didn't have a thing to do with it. I didn't get a stimulus check and I had business losses that gave my Federal tax benefits. I did not and do not see how the government did anything towards my personal progress except giving me the freedom to do it.
Perhaps, one of my best friends said it best: "You pulled yourself up by your bootstraps and pulled your head out of your ass."
1) I stopped drinking alcohol
2) I stopped smoking cigarettes
3) I took responsibillity for the results of my life
4) I invested in my mind and my continuing education
5) I read positive things, listened to positive things and started exercising
6) I started using Quicken software to better control my expenditures
7) I stopped wasting money on pipe dreams and "businesses" that I didn't have time to execute on.
Philosophically speaking, I came across "The Art of Exceptional Living" by Jim Rohn and "The Psychology of Winning" by Denis Waitley. I listened to them. I took notes. I red Atlas Shrugged because Jim challenged me to. I started pushing the limits of who I was into a new definition of Who I can be. I quit investing in a business that was doomed from the get-go and investing into more productive areas. I started paying off my debts and investing in me.
The bottom line is that I started accepting responsibility for my life. It's the only way to create change in your life.
My challenge to you is "Are you taking more responsibility for yourself than you wre four years ago?"
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